April 3, 2020

Alberni connection to Eastern “Summer in March” records?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 02 April 2020 - Thursday night: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of rain showers early this evening. 30 percent chance of flurries overnight. Low minus 1. Friday: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of flurries or rain showers in the morning then 30 percent chance of rain showers late in the morning and early afternoon. 40 percent chance of showers over southern sections in the afternoon. High 7. UV index 3 or moderate. Friday night: Partly cloudy. 60 percent chance of flurries before morning. Low zero. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High plus 5. Saturday night: Cloudy. Low zero. Sunday: Sunny. High 11. Sunday night: Clear. Low minus 3. Monday: Sunny. High 13. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 2. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 13. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 4. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 13.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    4.2° C
    -0.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.84 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 10 km/h
    gusting 18 km/h
    Humidity
    84 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    1.8° C
    Heat Index
    4.2° C
    Dewpoint
    1.8° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 4:10:00 PST
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  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    0.0 mm since
    March 28, 2020 00:03
    Civil Rise
    06:17
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (72% full)
    Civil Set
    20:28
    Day Length
    13:22:16
    Day High
    5.2° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.9° C @ 02:16 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.99 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.84 kPa @ 03:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -0.1° C @ 03:12 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    5.2° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 16km/h @ 03:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Now that was a nice Saturday! It’s still 8C as I write, but dropping fast as the clear skies allow all that nice warmth to escape. It got up to a very pleasant 12.4C on my station, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

We can expect the same tomorrow before clouds start to invade Monday and then the rain comes back on Tuesday.

The weather news of the year so far though is the “Summer in March” that most of central and Eastern North America has experienced over the past couple weeks.

Unprecedented, astonishing, record-breaking, these are all worthy adjectives. Make no mistake, records have fallen at incredible rates over the past little while.

Jeff Masters again has a great rundown of some of what’s going on, including this tidbit, note the bold added:

The 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia yesterday was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March, according to Environement Canada and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (top two records: 31.1°C at Alberini Beaver Creek BC on March 29th 1926, and 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg.)

Hey Mom! That’s Us! 😀

So I did some digging in the climate data for stations around Alberni and found something interesting:

There were two stations recording temperatures at that time, one in Beaver Creek (in the Valley), and one in the City of Port Alberni (at the head of the Inlet).

Here’s the data for March 1926 for both stations:

You can see the record circled along with the corresponding reading in the City. It noted a major 8C difference. This is an unusually large difference. If you look at all of the other temperatures for the month, it was a nice warm month, but generally the difference was not any more than 2 or 3C.

So I am left a little suspicious at that 31.1C reading only because it is so out of line with the trend. Now it could be that having such a hot day in March, it might have been foggy in the City and the fog stuck around for a longer time, and so there was less time for it to heat up… whereas out in Beaver Creek there may not have been any fog, and it started to warm as soon as the sun rose.

What’s more, I checked the stations at other Valley and local locations Lake Cowichan, Nanaimo, and Chilliwack for the same date, and they recorded 21.1C, 16.7C and 20.6C respectively.

So I am left sceptical that little old Beaver Creek could have been so far above the rest.

All that said…. If there needs to be any proof that the weather can be strange, then it has been the last week and there is also no doubt that regardless if the Beaver Creek temperature still holds the top temperature for March in Canada or not, there has never, in the history of record keeping in Canada, been a sustained heat wave in March like this one.

Jeff Masters says he’s never seen daytime lows beating all-time highs. We’re seeing records being broken by 10s of degrees. We are seeing March highs beating all time records for April.

I noticed on this blog of a prairie Environment Canada meteorologist an anonymous commenter mentioned:

Biggest and most intense heat wave I have ever seen. Very close to the Moscow one.[link]

That brings up the dark question. What would have happened if a heatwave of this difference and calibre happened in the middle of summer?

I consider this a warning. Are we listening yet?

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