Tue. Jul 23rd, 2019

A Pretty Normal May

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 22 July 2019 - Monday night: A few clouds. Low 12. Tuesday: Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud late in the morning. High 25. Humidex 26. UV index 7 or high. Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the evening and after midnight. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 23. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 11. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Sunday: Sunny. High 23.

  • Current Conditions
    15.3° C
    -0.6 ° C/hr
    101.8 kPa
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    90 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.3° C
    Heat Index
    15.3° C
    13.7° C
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 2:05:00 PST
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  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (66% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.3° C @ 01:58 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    101.81 kPa @ 00:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.76 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.3° C @ 01:58 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 00:40 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Good news, once this rain clears today, the first weekend of June should stay dry though not sunny. But we can’t expect too much after all, it is June on the West Coast!

There has been a lot of concern about how cold and ugly the spring has been. The farmers were complaining about not being able to get their crops in and people were needing a little sunshine. It seemed like we were setting up for another bummer summer!

Literally days later, the sun came out and we had a number of days of very warm and wonderful weather!


Now weve turned back post-May Long Weekend to wet dreary weather. So what has May turned out like as far as “Normals” go? You might be surprised.

Our high for the month was 28C… Way better than the anemic 21C we barely got to last year. As far as averages go:

Normal Max/Min/Ave Temperatures for May: 17.7C/5.6C/11.7C

2012 Alberniweather Max/Min/Ave Temp for May: 17.1C/6.1C/11.6C

2011 Alberniweather Max/Min/Ave Temp for May: 15.1C/6.4C/10.4C

2008 Alberniweather Max Temp for May: 20.8C/8.0C/13.2C

As you can see, compared to the 1970-2000 climate normals from Environment Canada we were almost bang on normal. Our maximums were a full two degrees warmer than last year and our overall average a full degree warmer. We can thank those few days of summer weather we had for giving us that.

Isn’t it funny though how we perceive it as being so cold though when in fact it’s been quite normal for temperatures? Well, that why I also put in the values from 2008. We were way way warmer that year, and a number of other years in the mid 2000s as well. People have short and selective memories when it comes to the weather.

But i also think we humans dont give ourselves enough credit for out innate ability to detect and remember trends in the weather even if it’s just a ‘feeling’. Now this is totally my uneducated opinion but I think we were getting used to that warm weather of the past decade and we were adapting. The fact that we were getting used to temperatures far above what would be measured as Normal suggest that perhaps Normal is changing. I think instead of being Normal, 2011 and 2012 will in future be much more representative of Colder than normal temperatures brought on by La Nina and the cold East Pacific waters of a negative PDO. Normal will be something closer to 2008. And that has some big implications.

That finally brings me to rainfall. One would think a cooler spring would mean more rainfall. That does not appear to tell the whole story though. Here are the numbers:

Normal Precipitation for May: 75mm

2012 Alberniweather Precipitation for May: 37.8mm

2011 Alberniweather Precipitation for May: 63.5mm

2008 Alberniweather Precipitation for May: 18.8mm

As you can see we are way below normal for May rainfall. Even last May was significantly below normal and 2008 was bone dry.

As can be seen here, 2008, 2011 and we know the first half of 2012 were all La Nina periods which bring us dry conditions… It looks like El Niño and La Nina still control our rainfall amounts.

Hope you find this post interesting…