A Question: Is this cool spring normal?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT , Port Alberni
    Issued: 04:56 AM PDT Monday 23 July 2018

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Monday 23 July 2018 - Monday: Sunny. High 33. Humidex 34. UV index 8 or very high. Monday night: Clear. Low 13. Tuesday: Sunny. High 34. Humidex 37. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 35. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 13. Thursday: Sunny. High 34. Thursday night: Clear. Low 14. Friday: Sunny. High 33. Friday night: Clear. Low 15. Saturday: Sunny. High 32. Saturday night: Clear. Low 15. Sunday: Sunny. High 31.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.3° C
    3.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.1 kPa
    rising
    Wind
    NW2 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    92 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    NA° C
    Heat Index
    18.5° C
    Dewpoint
    12.0° C
    UV
    0.7
    Solar
    183 W/m2
    Last Updated: 7:55:00 PST
    Station Reports Delayed
    19 minutes
    Showing Nearest Official Station

    Observed at: Port Alberni 07:00 AM PDT Monday 23 July 2018
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:59
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (85% full)
    Civil Set
    21:51
    Day Length
    13:25:43
    Day High
    20.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    14.2° C @ 05:57 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.01 kPa @ 07:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.96 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    14.2° C @ 05:57 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    20.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    188W/m2 @ 07:54 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.8 @ 07:54 Tdy.

I got a question from a friend that I thought would be a good blog post…. thanks Anna!

Question: The weather is getting a bit depressing… is there any sense that the rain will, eventually, let up a bit? Is this normal? I know it *seems* like a really (REALLY) cool, wet spring . . . but then, *every* spring seems like a really cool wet spring. At some point maybe it’s important to suck it up and just admit that we have cool wet springs!

I think she’s right… cool wet springs are pretty much the norm for this part of the world. March and April especially so.

But I’m a numbers guy… so lets look at the numbers.
The average from Environment Canada for March in Port Alberni is 5.9C(1970-2000)

The Mean Temperatures for March since my records began in 2006:

2006: 5.0C
2007: 6.2C
2008: 4.3C
2009: 3.6C
2010: 5.6C
2011: 4.6C
2012: 3.8C (with a couple days left, I’ll update it if the mean changes by the 1st)

So you’re right, it’s been cool.

We’ve had 239.5mm of precip (rain/snow) so far this month (might get a little more before the 1st). Normal for Port Alberni is 203mm so we’ve had more than normal but nothing too extreme.

I would expect the colder-than-normal temps to stick around. Personally unless we get some gigantic high pressure hot spells in the summer building up from the South or East then it’s going to be the cooler-than-normal (negative phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation) waters of the North East Pacific (NOAA SST Maps – Pick “Full Global” for our region) that are going to really influence our local temperatures.

NE Pacific SST Anomaly March 29 2012
NE Pacific SST Anomaly March 29 2012

Cold Water around our part of the world, great for the fish, not so much for our weather!

Notice also the hint of red waters off South America… that is the death of the most recent La Nina. Model Consensus is for Neutral conditions or a weak El Nino. Either one won’t likely cause a big change in our weather up here.

3 Replies to “A Question: Is this cool spring normal?”

  1. Well, that was depressing.  In brighter news, there are hints in the EC forecast that it could be sunny for Easter weekend!

  2. Hi Chris@9d286aaee8dae7fb6b1f52677e9e6182:disqus
    A really unfair question: Is there any way at all to tell *how* much cooler than “normal” (whatever that is!) it will be this summer? I just want to know whether I should go ahead with the tomato and pepper and corn plans, or just plant cabbages 😉
     

  3. I think it’ll probably be another late year but how cool is pretty hard to gauge. It seems this year has been generally not quite as cool as last year, so I’m hoping that trend will continue.

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