Wed. Dec 12th, 2018

A Question: Is this cool spring normal?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Tuesday 11 December 2018 - Tuesday night: Rain ending early this evening then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Becoming partly cloudy this evening. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Temperature steady near 6. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 6. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 8. Friday night: Rain. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 8. Saturday night: Rain. Low 7. Sunday: Rain. High 9. Sunday night: Rain. Low 7. Monday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
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    101.83 kPa
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    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
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    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    -0.4° C
    Heat Index
    -0.4° C
    Dewpoint
    -0.5° C
    UV
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    Last Updated: 4:55:00 PST
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  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:26
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (24% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:13:03
    Day High
    2.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    -0.4° C @ 04:53 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.83 kPa @ 04:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.14 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -2.1° C @ 04:08 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    2.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 4.8km/h @ 00:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
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I got a question from a friend that I thought would be a good blog post…. thanks Anna!

Question: The weather is getting a bit depressing… is there any sense that the rain will, eventually, let up a bit? Is this normal? I know it *seems* like a really (REALLY) cool, wet spring . . . but then, *every* spring seems like a really cool wet spring. At some point maybe it’s important to suck it up and just admit that we have cool wet springs!

I think she’s right… cool wet springs are pretty much the norm for this part of the world. March and April especially so.

But I’m a numbers guy… so lets look at the numbers.
The average from Environment Canada for March in Port Alberni is 5.9C(1970-2000)

The Mean Temperatures for March since my records began in 2006:

2006: 5.0C
2007: 6.2C
2008: 4.3C
2009: 3.6C
2010: 5.6C
2011: 4.6C
2012: 3.8C (with a couple days left, I’ll update it if the mean changes by the 1st)

So you’re right, it’s been cool.

We’ve had 239.5mm of precip (rain/snow) so far this month (might get a little more before the 1st). Normal for Port Alberni is 203mm so we’ve had more than normal but nothing too extreme.

I would expect the colder-than-normal temps to stick around. Personally unless we get some gigantic high pressure hot spells in the summer building up from the South or East then it’s going to be the cooler-than-normal (negative phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation) waters of the North East Pacific (NOAA SST Maps – Pick “Full Global” for our region) that are going to really influence our local temperatures.

NE Pacific SST Anomaly March 29 2012
NE Pacific SST Anomaly March 29 2012

Cold Water around our part of the world, great for the fish, not so much for our weather!

Notice also the hint of red waters off South America… that is the death of the most recent La Nina. Model Consensus is for Neutral conditions or a weak El Nino. Either one won’t likely cause a big change in our weather up here.

3 thoughts on “A Question: Is this cool spring normal?

  1. Well, that was depressing.  In brighter news, there are hints in the EC forecast that it could be sunny for Easter weekend!

  2. Hi Chris@9d286aaee8dae7fb6b1f52677e9e6182:disqus
    A really unfair question: Is there any way at all to tell *how* much cooler than “normal” (whatever that is!) it will be this summer? I just want to know whether I should go ahead with the tomato and pepper and corn plans, or just plant cabbages 😉
     

  3. I think it’ll probably be another late year but how cool is pretty hard to gauge. It seems this year has been generally not quite as cool as last year, so I’m hoping that trend will continue.

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