POST UPDATE 5:30AM Thursday – Winds should back off
Update 5:30AM.
Good news!
EC has ended the wind warning and the models have all backed off on their wind predictions for the morning all but one are predicting winds below 70kph.
10:30PM Update – UWASH MODEL SHIFTS STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH
Unfortunately, the latest run from the University of Washington model, which is traditionally the most accurate, is not good for the South Coast.
This was the Thursday 4AM image from last nights forecast:
Below is this mornings forecast
And here is tonights forecast.
The progression to the south is clear. This is a potential worst case scenario. This is the strongest storm we have seen this year (and possibly for a number of years). I do not remember any storm with 130kph winds on the UWash maps this widespread off of Barkley Sound.
I would expect anything from 70-100kph winds tomorrow anywhere on the South Island between 4AM and 10AM Thursday.
Given how much the models have moved, I would say it will be difficult to say exactly where those winds will be, but certainly if you are on the exposed areas or higher terrain you are more likely.
TIDES
This amount of wind and the low pressure will cause a storm surge and higher water at the shore. Thankfully, low tide is at 7AM and high tide is not until 1PM so the storm should not coincide with the tides though there may be high streamflows that will mix with the high tide Thursday afternoon.
OTHER MODELS
The Canadian GEM models have insignificant winds. Frankly, I don’t believe them.
The Canadian multi-model has 30kph sustained at 4AM which would suggest gusts to 60-70kph.
The American Short Term HRRR and RAP are still the highs and agree with the UWash that the strongest winds will come later.
50kph gusts in early morning and 90kph gusts respectively around 10AM.
The US NAM and GFS have the strongest winds, around 7AM. NAM says 80kph gusts, GFS says high 60s.
We will see what we have in the morning!
Batten down the hatches and be prepared for power outages and falling or fallen trees.
8PM Update: SNOW!?
This is Cumberland right now!
I know this is Canada in March but this is #VancouverIsland in March! #Cumberland right now. @CHEK_News pic.twitter.com/iONN8FrndW
— Dean Stoltz (@deanstoltzchek) March 10, 2016
This is likely only happening at higher elevations but it is an excellent demonstration of just how intense this storm is that it is driving down temperatures through the precipitation enough that it turns to snow.
I would definitely NOT recommend driving over the hump or to/from Tofino or really anywhere right now if you can avoid it. Unfortunately… I can’t, I am now leaving VIU to head for home. Should be fun.
POST UPDTAE 7PM
The NAM has now updated. Has 85kph winds in the morning.
Check below for other models predictions including up to 100kph
POST UPDATE 6:30PM – Latest Models Concerning.
The latest output from the short term, rapid updating models are concerning.
The US RAP model, which now goes out to 11AM Thursday morning, has wind gusts to 106kph at 10AM.
The US HRRR model only goes to 7AM but it agrees with the RAP that gusts then will only be in the 50kph range. So the question is will it agree with the RAP when it gets to the 10-11AM hours on Thursday.
The more mainstream models won’t update for a few more hours.
POST UPDATE 5:15PM – High Streamflow Warning for Somass –
There is another small outage in Port Alberni.
And the River Forecast Centre has issued an Advisory for the Somass.
High Streamflow Advisory: Central Vancouver Island
ISSUED: March 9 2016 3:00 PM
The BC River Forecast Centre is issuing a High Streamflow Advisory for:
- Central Vancouver Island including the Somass River and smaller tributaries in the region
Rainfall associated with a Pacific storm system is expected to impact Vancouver Island overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Environment Canada is forecasting precipitation amounts in the 50-80 mm range overnight. Temperatures are also expected to warm, and additional melt from snow is possible later in the storm cycle.
The overall storm pattern is currently forecast to bring heavy rain across much of Vancouver Island. Rivers are expected to rise rapidly overnight in response to rainfall, and reach peak levels later on Thursday morning, or into Thursday afternoon.
While the current assessment suggests that the highest flows are expected in Central Vancouver Island, including the Somass River and tributaries, high flows are also possible in adjacent areas, particularly if the storm systems stalls as it passes Vancouver Island. Higher flows are also possible into northern Vancouver Island, East Vancouver Island, and Southern Vancouver Island.
The public is cautioned to stay clear of rivers during rain events due to quickly flowing water and potentially unstable riverbanks.
The River Forecast Centre will continue to monitor conditions and will provide updates as conditions warrant.
A High Streamflow Advisory means that river levels are rising or expected to rise rapidly, but that no major flooding is expected. Minor flooding in low-lying areas is possible.
POST UPDATE 4:45PM –
Environment Canada has continued their Wind Warning
4:33 PM PST Wednesday 09 March 2016
Wind warning in effect for:
- Inland Vancouver Island
Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.
Winds up to 70 km/h will occur overnight and into Thursday morning as a strong cold front crosses Vancouver Island. The threat of strong winds will pass by noon on Thursday.
Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to pacificstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #BCStorm.
POST UPDATED 4PM – Trees Down Power Out in Places.
There are reports that there are trees down on or near Highway 4 by Tseshaht Market.
Winds gusting to 40kph.
There is also a power outage in Beaver Creek.
POST UPDATED 3PM – Rain Begins – Wind Predictions
There are already reports of downed power lines and trees in the region. Stay safe out there.
The Storm is starting to spin up offshore, below is the current Sat image.
Below are all of the updated models. They all expect strong winds Thursday morning. Some expect also expect gusty winds this afternoon.
I will update again after 4PM when EC has updated their wind warning. The rain is now starting on the East Coast and should start in Port Alberni within a few hours.
Short Term
Canadian High Resolution shows sustained winds of 40kph… implied gusts would then be in the 70-80kph with two peaks at 1AM and then again at 5-6AM.
HRRR 15 hour shows gusts to 40kph around 1AM and sustained 30 to gust 50kph at 4AM. It may be higher after that but we will need to wait a few more hours to see it on this model.
RAP 18 hour model has gusts to 40kph this afternoon and then sustained 35 to gust 60kph in the 6-7AM hours tomorrow.
Long Range Models
Canadian GEM – Is the most lenient with sustained winds of only 17kph.
NAM – Has Gusts to 60kph this afternoon and sustained 40 gusting to 86kph in the 4AM hour tomorrow.
GFS – Has gusts under 40kph this afternoon but sustained 15kph with gusts to 80kph tomorrow 4AM. This seems suspect to me. Those are very high gusts for low sustained. The 7AM sustained 35 to gust 70 makes more sense.
Post updated 12PM Wed – Environment Canada issues Wind Warning
EC has now issued a wind warning for Inland Vancouver Island
11:34 AM PST Wednesday 09 March 2016
Wind warning in effect for:Inland Vancouver Island
Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.Winds up to 70 km/h will occur overnight and into Thursday morning as a strong cold front crosses Vancouver Island. The threat of strong winds will pass by noon on Thursday.
Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to pacificstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #BCStorm.
________
Original post from this morning below.
Environment Canada has not, I repeat, has not issued a wind warning for Inland Vancouver Island. So clearly they do not believe we in Port Alberni will have winds as strong as what the models are predicting that you see below.
I will update this post today if anything changes signficantly in morning model runs. To see rain predictions check my previous post. I will focus on winds here.
Here is the beast we are dealing with. This picture is when the low will be at its strongest offshore of VI early Thursday morning around 1AM.
That is pretty impressive with pressure at 96.5kPa. White areas are wind gusts over 75knots/130kph with other colours going down by 10 knots at a time.
The UWash model still has the low travelling just over the north tip of the Island which is good. This is the 4-7AM Thursday period below.
Normally we would get very little wind from a track like that, but the strength of this storm means higher winds further than normal from the center. And that is the concern.
The American NAM and GFS models at Spotx.com are the only mid range systems there that predict Gusts. They are predicting 70 and 100kph respectively for the 4-7AM period for our area.
The Canadian models do not have gust information but they do agree on the low pressure at the same time as well as on the base winds around 30-40kph.
Canadian model
Canadian Long range
Canadian multi-model
American short range
This final American short range model above does not reach all the way to Thursday morning, but it also indicates strong winds could begin as soon as this afternoon around 4PM.
Batten down the hatches just in case.
As I said at the top of the post, I will monitor all of the forecast and models throughout the day today and if any of the change significantly, or if Environment Canada posts a warning or update, I will update this post.
Check back to see what’s up.
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