Wed. Sep 19th, 2018

Good :UPDATED: *Major* Snow then Wash it away.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 18 September 2018 - Tuesday night: A few clouds. Increasing cloudiness near midnight. Low 6. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers in the evening then partly cloudy. Low 9. Thursday: Showers. High 16. Thursday night: Rain. Low 8. Friday: Rain. High 15. Friday night: Showers. Low 9. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Sunday: Cloudy. High 16. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    17.8° C
    -1.6 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.76 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 14.6 km/h
    gusting 25.7 km/h
    Humidity
    55 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    17.8° C
    Heat Index
    17.8° C
    Dewpoint
    8.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    42 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:27
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (70% full)
    Civil Set
    19:58
    Day Length
    13:13:14
    Day High
    20.4° C @ 16:21 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.3° C @ 02:06 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.15 kPa @ 08:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.76 kPa @ 17:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.9° C @ 06:11 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    20.4° C @ 16:21 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 15.0km/h @ 18:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    824W/m2 @ 11:39 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.3 @ 13:18 Tdy.

UPDATE: After listening to a worried Mark Madryga talking about a “dump” of snow for the Fraser Valley and after seeing this post by Accuweathers Bret Anderson, I thought it worth the update.

Mr. Anderson is calling for up to 25cm across the Island, with up to 40cm (1ft 3in) in our area through Wednesday.

He’s calling for it to change to rain by Thursday, but I still think we have a good chance of our Valley trapping enough cold air to keep it snowing, through Thursday, with freezing rain happening whenever the changeover happens. At the very maximum if it stays cold through Thursday it’s possible we could have close to 2ft of snow. If that happens, or even if we “only” get 1ft, it means when it warms up and rains hard on Friday we will have major threat of flooding.

The time to prepare is now and tomorrow morning.

_________________
Original post below

So for anyone hoping for a snowday this week (Linda! 🙂 ) It looks like your best bet is Wednesday.

I’m actually surprised that it got down below -6C as The Weather Network forecast yesterday (they said it could be as low as -9C this morning and it’s currently -8 at the airport). That’s thanks to the fog staying away. I still see stars in the sky this morning so we might even have sun from start to finish today. Not bad for a Monday!

This week will definitely be interesting. The models up until yesterday seemed kind of all over the place, they would change drastically from one run to the next. But it’s for sure that the action will start Tuesday afternoon and evening. With cold like this hanging around in the Valley, there’s no doubt we will start with snow.

Here’s what it looks like for the week.

My bet is that because the first two pulses of moistures don’t look overly strong, they will likely fall as snow. Friday looks like a biggie though, so I think by then we will definitely turn to rain and wash anything that we have gotten away.

After this weekend. It looks wet. Very wet. All next week.

22 thoughts on “Good :UPDATED: *Major* Snow then Wash it away.

  1. Sure looks like snow! Interesting that now the GFS and Accuweather forecasts for next week are lining up on the same track – wet & mild.

  2. Ya, I didn’t include the temperature forecasts from the GFS in my post but it has us staying well below zero for the Wednesday event and then popping up above zero on Thursday. I think we’ll hold on through Thursday unless there is some wind, so that’s why I went for snow on Thursday too. Could end up with quite a bit. Mark Madryga is thinking the East Fraser Valley could have a lot of snow by the end of the event on Wednesday, but he didn’t actually say how much.

    Eve, it definitely won’t be that. Next week looks wild enough to maybe get some wind too.

  3. What a turn-around in the forecast! This morning I was telling people to expect snow, but not very much. Now, when I tell them we’ll get LOTS of snow, they’re saying, “Ya, sure, we’ve heard this before”. Looking at the Satellite and the GFS though, I believe it this time!

  4. Gordie Tupper is a grump..He says we may see a little bitty bit, a couple cm maybe, but Not close to what they were fist predicting..what a grump

  5. ok……. a little nervous! No Bill…No Chris…………….No Nick! ……..What’s goin’ on? I need an update. It’s been flurrying out Beaver Creek for some time, nothing substantial…….but I need to know about those models…….I don’t have too much time but being the geek I am have been trying to learn what you guys are talking about, how do you read those models….GFS excetera?Need to know for my self…….. It’s an obsessive, kind of itchy thing. I need to know what you all know….I need a course!

  6. Everything I know I learned from Chris. The GFS is a great tool and I find it’s quite accurate. For a basic meteorogram showing a temp & precip chart for Port Alberni go to:
    http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php
    type in “cwqc”, click “continue”,choose “GFS model 0-192hr”, click “Go”,click “next”,choose “temp-2 meters” & “Accumulated precip” from Fields 1 & 2, enter the access code displayed in the image box, and click “Get Meteorogram”. There, wasn’t that easy?

  7. Even easier step-by-step than Bills for the same:
    go to:
    http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

    type in “cwqc”, click “continue”,

    Beside Autogram Click: “Plot up to 6 meteorograms at a time”

    Check the 2 “GFS” boxes

    Enter the access code displayed in the image box, and click “Get Meteorogram”.

    Boom! Short and Long Range forecast all at once!

  8. My guess is it won’t begin in earnest until noon or so tomorrow. Another cool site is NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Centre at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
    I look at the QPF, Excessive Rainfall, and Winter Weather maps when we are expecting an incoming system. Keep in mind the measurements are imperial not metric.

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