Tue. Oct 16th, 2018

Definite change coming

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Tuesday 16 October 2018 - Tuesday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating late this morning. High 20. UV index 3 or moderate. Tuesday night: Clear. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches in the morning. High 18. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 2. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 4. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 5. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Monday: Cloudy. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.2° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.79 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    96 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.2° C
    Heat Index
    3.2° C
    Dewpoint
    2.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 6:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:08
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (49% full)
    Civil Set
    18:59
    Day Length
    13:04:42
    Day High
    6.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.1° C @ 05:47 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.81 kPa @ 02:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.76 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    3.1° C @ 05:47 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    6.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

We’re going to get another bout of heavy rain tomorrow…. but I’m looking beyond that now because if the models are accurate (and they’ve been consistent on this for almost a week now) we look to be setting up for another bout of cold and potentially snowy, weather.

Here are todays results from the Global Forecast System.

First the short range forecast including the rain tomorrow.
Feb 13

The bars are precipitation… notice the main shot on Monday through Tuesday morning.

What’s interesting is the break about 1/3 the way through…. if you look at the other graphs you’ll see that break marks a change. Particularly the 850MB chart shows the air aloft will turn cold and stay that way. That likely means some arctic air will be making its way here and any precipitation that falls after Tuesday could fall as snow.

Here’s the following week up until March.

Feb 13

If that model pans out… everything between Tuesday and March 1 could be snow!

Whatever happens…it’s setting us up to be below freezing for a couple weeks.

14 thoughts on “Definite change coming

    1. checked it out………..lol………so cool to us weather fanatics! Showed it to son and husband 🙁 ….What do they know? Watching golf would be the only excitement around here, if I wasn’t around. They all think I am messed up. I got all excited seeing it again! Ready for the next bit of fun!!!!!!

  1. The Barometer is already lower than it was on Saturday, so the potential for strong wind is certainly there. It all depends on if it comes roaring up the Inlet or gets stopped by a mountain or two.

    1. It’s been blowing in Ukee pretty good all morning. Raining too. We were gonna head for Toquart Bay for a campfire, but I kaibashed that idea due to the rainfall. Might go look at Long Beach This afternoon.

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