So I figured since the forecast was pretty…. predictable… I’d focus on something else.

Namely. El Nino.

The NOAA Prediction center updated its advisory on Nov 5.

Quote:

Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.

Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.

I’m sure there will be a few rolled eyeballs at the ‘below-average’ wording :). We’ve been in a mild-to-moderate El Nino and certainly haven’t been below average in precip by any stretch of the imagination. But, maybe this will mean we’ll have a dryer winter than usual. We’ll see.

I also wanted to mention the new minimum for November that was reached in the Arctic this past week. I highly recommend reading Dr. Jeff Masters post on the subject. It’s very thorough and enlightening, but I wanted to highlight this part especially about how the changing ice conditions are changing weather patterns.

Quote:

Sea ice loss causes stronger storms in the Arctic
The stronger storms over the Arctic Ocean this fall were due, in part, to the loss of sea ice. In a 2009 article titled, Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008, Simmonds and Keay found that September storms over the East Arctic intensified by about 1 mb over the past 30 years and had grown about 50 miles larger in diameter, thanks to all the extra heat energy supplied by more open water due to recent losses in Arctic sea ice. These stronger storms may create a positive feedback loop that will lead to even more sea ice loss: reduced sea ice drives stronger storms, whose winds break up sea ice, creating even more warm water to feed stronger storms with stronger winds, and so on. Now that the arctic sea ice is 48% thinner than 30 years ago, this effect will increase in importance, since thinner ice breaks up more readily in strong winds.

It is now expected that the Arctic will be completely ice free in summer no later than 2030. (originally the predictions were 2050 or later)

Imagine. September 2030… my son will be 24 years old. And there will be no ice in the Arctic. None. For the first time in millions of years.

So the next few days we’re going to be in for another 100mm of rain and some more wind. The fun never stops! It shouldn’t be as crazy as last nights wind or the weekends rains… but it will be more none the less!

What I find more interesting is that on my way up the hump this morning I encountered heavy sleet in the air and on the road! I thought this was supposed to be a Pineapple Express!?

By coincidence, Dr. Jeff Masters at WUnderground blogged today about El Nino and our serious weather up here. Here’s what he had to say:

Bolds added by me for highlighting…

A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada’s British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the “Pineapple Express” due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I’ve been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, “also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning…not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it’s raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it’s because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms”.

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula.

So there you go. 7 inches is 178mm.

I think the take away message from all this is that even with all these warm Pacific winds buffeting us, there might be a winner to the Snow Contest sooner rather than later! :D

Oh, and another snippet from Dr. Masters:

Start Quote:

Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong

That should mean some real Pineapple Expresses down the line… which should mean warm temperatures and potential bad news for the winter ski season and the Olympics.