That forecast certainly is persistent. They’ve been calling for “rain or snow” on Saturday for a few days now. And now that we’re into the 3 day timeframe and it’s still there… well… maybe it might just happen!
I was checking out Ken Clarks Accuweather blog last night. The 2 systems that might give us snow on Saturday and then a whole bunch of rain on Sunday/Monday is going to dump a whole bunch of snow on the Cascades. So even if we don’t get more than a few flurries, it looks like Mt. Washington and Whistler are going to be jumping for joy for an early start to the season in this Olympic year.
Update: Beware driving on the Hump or Sutton passes today! Going up the West side of the Hump this morning (7AM) was not fun…. a good inch of slush on the road and wet snow coming down hard.
Careful out there. You must have Winter Tires (Studded is best) or chains for your all-seasons on both the Hump and Sutton Pass this time of year…. so says DriveSmartBC
November 12th, 2009 at 8:20 am
It looks like a lot of moisture coming, so if there is still cold air from overnight Friday and the rain arrives during the day Saturday, I think we’ll get snow for sure. I put my guess in yesterday and now I think I’m off by a few hours, but we’ll see.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Uhoh… looks like the Weather Office just threw a curve ball to the latecomers to the Snow Contest… sorry Eve and Bill!
November 12th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Yeah, well I didn’t think it was fair to hold off my guess until the forecast was certain. But I’m sticking to my guns anyway. The current GFS has the temperature warming up to 0C by around 10:00 am, with the moisture arriving about an hour or two later. Timing is everything, but I still think there is a good chance of snow sometime during the daylight hours on Saturday.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Hey, nothing in the rules prevents a little strategy! Makes it more interesting for everyone!
November 12th, 2009 at 11:58 am
The weather office says Rain Saturday with a low of minus 5. Go figure………my thinking is how does it rain at minus 5? So whatever, we’ll see. They are always throwing curve balls at us.
Good luck to all!
November 12th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
ya… minus 5 it’s pretty hard to think that there isn’t going to be a good couple hour window for some snow. There will be some people rooting against you though! :D
November 12th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Hmmm, snow, eh? That should be interesting. I see the mountains are getting dusted now. Came through Alberni Tuesday night, and the Hump was white on the sides of the road, as was Sutton’s Pass. But then, it is approaching that time of year….
November 12th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
That’s my logic Eve – I figure when those two systems colide some time on Saturday, we’ll get snow.
Mike, this will be the first winter since 1994 that I haven’t had to drive Sutton pass 5 days a week. Sorry, but….Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!
November 12th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Thanks for the vote of confidence Bill!
November 12th, 2009 at 11:04 pm
Hey Chris
@23:50
Wind comming from N;E out here in beaver crk. not a normal patern,cold and steady but not hard.
Snow…. ?
Mark
November 13th, 2009 at 6:30 am
Certainly had a chilly windchill (down to -2) this morning! But no snow here at Alberniweather…just rain.
November 13th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Eve, I think we both might be just a little early, but you are closest. The current GFS predicts the rain arrival and the warmup to 0C at about 10:00 am Saturday. I still think it will start as snow.
Beyond that, Holy Crap, there’s a whole lot of rain coming! Up to 157mm on the 84 hour forecast (4pm Monday), and 268 mm on the 180 hour forecast 8 am Friday)! The GFS has tended to overstate the rain in the past, so I’m hoping that’s the case here. Sunday will be the third anniversary of the first flood/storm of 2006.
November 13th, 2009 at 8:26 am
Ya I saw that too Bill! Looks like we’re in for a really wet week!
Just a heads up to any drivers out there.
There was a fair amount of slush on the road this morning going up the West side of the hump. Be careful. It’s very slippery.
November 13th, 2009 at 11:15 am
I’m not impressed with the 11am forcast!
November 13th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
It’s certainly not looking good for you guys Eve and Bill!
November 13th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
GFS says we won’t be getting any precipitation until around 2PM… unless there is thick fog, it’s going to be all warmed up by then!
November 13th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
How do you have 4.5c outside still? I got 2.1c and it even feels colder outside.
November 13th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
Out Beaver Creek here, already frost, railings and sundeck frozen!
November 13th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
sorry network froze there for a moment… it’s back now
November 13th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Yeah, I know what you mean Chris, I may have misjudged. But you know, I’ve found that the forecasters often underestimate the time it takes for the cold air to clear out of the Valley. If it gets cold enough… say, -3 to -5, and the fog holds it in…well by the time the precipitation arrives at around 2, we might still see some flurries. Maybe.
November 13th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Lots of frost here!
You’re Bill. Not only do they often underestimate cold leaving the Valley… they also often underestimate how fast a system comes upon the West Coast.
November 13th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
Ya I was just looking at the Color Infrared animation and judging by the speed of the system over the past 4 hours it looks like it should reach us around 2PM tomorrow.
So we’re going to need a full day of fog in order to keep that cool in…
I don’t know if I’d wish that on anyone. ;)