Don’t you just get that feeling that it might just maybe just might might have a snowflake in the air?

Nick and Eve asked in the comments of the last post if maybe there might be some snow tonight.

I don’t know honestly! It sure is close to being cold enough, but we really haven’t gotten down into that magical freezing point for any stretch of time really so I don’t konw if there is enough cold air to do it. And the temperature seems to be holding pretty firm at plus 2.

Hard to say though, if we get a bit of a puff of wind from the North just as the moisture starts to come in from the Pacific who knows what might happen.

One thing is for sure, if you’re out driving the Hump or Sutton Pass tonight or tomorrow morning, take care. It’s liable to get ugly.

We’re in for another warm Pacific front starting tonight and going through tomorrow. After that though, we’re going to be drying out and cooling down along with the rest of North America (right on over to the Nor’East)… we might get a little snow late in the week. Along with northern Florida!

Including, this time, the Alberni Valley.

Since it is Island wide, I will let you go check it out for details on other parts of the Island.

Here is the information most relevant to Alberni area residents:

Quote starts:

Weather forecasts indicate the front pushing onto north and central Vancouver Island today, bring moderate to heavy rain beginning this afternoon or this evening. The front is forecast to shift southward overnight, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rain onto areas south of Barkley Sound beginning after midnight and lasting to Wednesday evening.

Following the cool and wet weather of the past 2 weeks, very deep snowpacks have accumulated across the Vancouver Island Insular Mountains (and across the Coast Mountains of the south coast as well). The snow line on Vancouver Island this morning is low, near 500 metres. The prolonged period of warning will result in melt of low and mid slope snow overnight and on Wednesday, adding that water to rivers.
An additional factor with the high streamflow and flood risk from this event is that Vancouver Island has received very large amounts of precipitation over the past 7‐14 days; lake levels are very high, soils are saturated, and runoff rates are expected to be high.
Rivers will begin to rise overnight tonight, with widespread high streamflow conditions by Wednesday late morning across west Vancouver Island (Gold River, Heber River, Salmon River, etc.), and central Vancouver Island (Salmon River, Alberni valley, Tsolum River, Oyster River, Browns River, Nile River, etc.).

A Flood Watch means that river levels are rising and will approach or may exceed bankfull. Flooding of areas adjacent to affected rivers may occur.

BC Environment River Forecast Centre

According to todays 18Z (10AM) run of the GFS weather model, the heaviest rains are slated to come between around 6AM and 10AM.

The high tide tomorrow is at 6:48AM … so hopefully the worst rains come after the tide starts to recede to their low at 1PM. If the rains come a little heavier, a little earlier, than we could be looking at more serious flooding, but it’s only slated to be about 60mm, so hopefully it won’t be bad… it’s the snowpack and saturation of the land/lakes that is causing the most concern I think.

Stay safe. I guess now I’ll find out how well I cleaned out my drains last week after our inch of water in the basement…

So I figured since the forecast was pretty…. predictable… I’d focus on something else.

Namely. El Nino.

The NOAA Prediction center updated its advisory on Nov 5.

Quote:

Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.

Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.

I’m sure there will be a few rolled eyeballs at the ‘below-average’ wording :). We’ve been in a mild-to-moderate El Nino and certainly haven’t been below average in precip by any stretch of the imagination. But, maybe this will mean we’ll have a dryer winter than usual. We’ll see.

I also wanted to mention the new minimum for November that was reached in the Arctic this past week. I highly recommend reading Dr. Jeff Masters post on the subject. It’s very thorough and enlightening, but I wanted to highlight this part especially about how the changing ice conditions are changing weather patterns.

Quote:

Sea ice loss causes stronger storms in the Arctic
The stronger storms over the Arctic Ocean this fall were due, in part, to the loss of sea ice. In a 2009 article titled, Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008, Simmonds and Keay found that September storms over the East Arctic intensified by about 1 mb over the past 30 years and had grown about 50 miles larger in diameter, thanks to all the extra heat energy supplied by more open water due to recent losses in Arctic sea ice. These stronger storms may create a positive feedback loop that will lead to even more sea ice loss: reduced sea ice drives stronger storms, whose winds break up sea ice, creating even more warm water to feed stronger storms with stronger winds, and so on. Now that the arctic sea ice is 48% thinner than 30 years ago, this effect will increase in importance, since thinner ice breaks up more readily in strong winds.

It is now expected that the Arctic will be completely ice free in summer no later than 2030. (originally the predictions were 2050 or later)

Imagine. September 2030… my son will be 24 years old. And there will be no ice in the Arctic. None. For the first time in millions of years.

So the next few days we’re going to be in for another 100mm of rain and some more wind. The fun never stops! It shouldn’t be as crazy as last nights wind or the weekends rains… but it will be more none the less!

What I find more interesting is that on my way up the hump this morning I encountered heavy sleet in the air and on the road! I thought this was supposed to be a Pineapple Express!?

By coincidence, Dr. Jeff Masters at WUnderground blogged today about El Nino and our serious weather up here. Here’s what he had to say:

Bolds added by me for highlighting…

A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada’s British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the “Pineapple Express” due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I’ve been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, “also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning…not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it’s raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it’s because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms”.

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula.

So there you go. 7 inches is 178mm.

I think the take away message from all this is that even with all these warm Pacific winds buffeting us, there might be a winner to the Snow Contest sooner rather than later! :D

Oh, and another snippet from Dr. Masters:

Start Quote:

Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong

That should mean some real Pineapple Expresses down the line… which should mean warm temperatures and potential bad news for the winter ski season and the Olympics.

Wind and Rain warning has now ended, I’ll blog again tonight… there are still flood warnings out and there is more wind and rain forecast for tomorrow, we reached 82kph at Alberniweather and 99.7kph down at the Harbour Quay weather station run by UVic. Hope everyone come out of it OK.

I’ll let Environment Canada and the Ministry of Environment do the talking:

8:35 PM PST Monday 16 November 2009

Wind warning for Inland Vancouver Island continued

Start Quote:

Additional rainfall amounts of 20 to 50 mm expected by Tuesday morning.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Southerly winds 50 to 70 km/h will develop later this evening.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A slow moving pacific frontal system over the South Coast of British Columbia will continue to bring rain at times heavy over the area tonight. Additional rainfall amounts of 20 to 50 mm can be expected by Tuesday morning with highest amounts over Howe Sound and near the northshore mountains.

Meanwhile, strong southerly winds up to 70 km/h will develop later this evening. The winds are expected to ease Tuesday morning as the front moves inland.

Flood Warning Update: Vancouver Island17Nov2009 7:30AM

Start Quote:

Flood Warning Update:Vancouver Island17Nov2009 7:30AM
Flood Watch ENDED for South Coast, except for Vancouver Island River noted below
All Flood Warnings ENDED except:
•Tsolum River (Courtney)
•Nanaimo River
•Cowichan River

Rainfall ended on central Vancouver Island yesterday afternoon, and ended on south Vancouver Island and the lower mainland after midnight. Environment Canada has ENDED all Rainfall Warnings for the South Coast. Temperatures have fallen dramatically at snow pillow sites, and the freezing elevation appears to have dropped to near 1000 metres, largely ending the snowmelt that had been occurring during the storm event. Water levels on gauged rivers on Vancouver Island and lower mainland are dropping, except for the Cowichan River which is still rising slowly. The Tsolum River and Nanaimo River remain above flood warning level as of 7AM.
The status of rivers is as follows (current to 7PM):
•Gold River – has dropped below warning level
•Heber River – has dropped below warning level
•Salmon River at Sayward – has dropped below warning level
•Tsolum River (Courtenay) – has dropped 1.7 metres from its peak and continues to fall,but remains above flood warning level
•Browns River (Courtenay) – has dropped below warning level
•Englishman River (parksville) – has dropped below warning level
•Nanaimo River – has dropped 0.5 metres from its peak and continues to fall, but remains above flood warning level
•Chemainus River – has dropped below warning level
•Cowichan River – Continuing to rise slowly following overnight rain (which ended at 2AM). Near a 5‐year return period.