Looks like the nasty storm we’ve been watching up in the Aleutian Island has cause a cod fishing boat to capsize putting 11 crew in the water. At least 3 are confirmed dead, 4 survivors found.

Four crew members of a fishing boat were plucked alive from a life raft in frigid, stormy seas in a remote Alaskan island chain Wednesday, hours after their vessel was reported in distress, a Coast Guard spokesman said. Three crew members died, and four remained missing.

A search continues for other members of the Katmai, a 93-foot fish processor based on Alaska’s Kodiak island, said Coast Guard Petty Officer Levi Read.

The four survivors were discovered in the raft near the Amchitka Pass, which links the Bering Sea to the Pacific Ocean about 1,400 miles southwest of Anchorage.

Hope for the best, but needless to say, the odds are not good for the missing. The storm has largely passed but the water is cold (43F), 35knot winds, and not a lot of help for the search in such a remote area.

In the admittedly short time of this blog, don’t know if I’ve seen a forecast for winds this strong on the weather charts. Below is the current 48hr outlook (There is a larger version available through the Forecast Menu, Weather Charts, North Pacific). That flag right below the “L” is 50+10+10+10… 80knots.

Its forecast is to weaken considerably by the time it reaches the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday (to 970mb), and the associated frontal system is currently producing more modest 40knot winds.

That said, the winter storm season has definitely arrived! Imagine being a crabber in the Beaufort Sea or crew on a freighter to Japan! CRAZY!

UPDATE: The updated forecast cuts the worst winds up there to 70knots and the front won’t reach in any big kind of way as our nice little ridge of High Pressure continues to protect us.

UPDATE: The new 24hr forecasts the above low to peak at 85knots… about 160kph (and that’s sustained, gusts would be greater than that). In the tropics that cross into a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Weeee!